What the Statement Actually Said

The FOMC statement kept the ample-reserves framework unchanged and continued to attribute elevated inflation "in part" to supply-side factors including energy. Warsh, who has chosen not to submit a dot since becoming Chair, offered limited forward guidance at his press conference. He emphasised that policy will remain data-dependent and rejected the framing that this hike marks the start of a cycle. The August jobs report, sticky July PCE, rising oil prices, and climbing long-end Treasury yields all featured as justifications.

What the Dot Plot Actually Reveals

The distribution matters more than the median. Twelve participants at 4.00-4.25 percent by year-end 2026, four at 4.25-4.50 percent, two at the current 3.75-4.00 percent range. That is a committee meaningfully divided, but tilted decisively hawkish. The 2027 dots show most participants holding rather than easing. The signal: this Fed sees the neutral rate as higher than the pre-2022 consensus and is willing to defend that view.

What Analysts Should Actually Watch

Three data points now determine whether the next hike lands at the 28-29 October meeting. The September CPI on 15 October: any reacceleration in core services would confirm the hawkish reading. The Q3 GDP advance estimate on 30 October: sustained growth above 2 percent supports another move. And Warsh's public commentary between meetings, which under his chairmanship has become the primary forward-guidance channel.