What Q1 Actually Delivered

Q1 FY27 (reported 20 May) was extraordinary. Revenue reached $81.6 billion, up 85 percent year-over-year. Data center revenue of $75.2 billion grew 92 percent. Non-GAAP EPS of $1.87 beat consensus by 5.4 percent. Nvidia announced an additional $80 billion buyback authorisation and raised the quarterly dividend from $0.01 to $0.25. Market capitalisation reached ~$5 trillion.

At $215.9 billion for FY26, Nvidia is larger than most sovereign economies. Total supply commitments reached $119 billion at end of Q1.

What the Q2 Guide Actually Tells the Market

The forward guide will matter more than the reported quarter. Q2 is largely already written by capex decisions hyperscalers made three months ago. The Q3 guide reveals what Nvidia is seeing in current order flow.

Three data points matter. Whether the guide comes above or in line with current $102-105 billion Q3 consensus: above signals the AI capex cycle is accelerating; in line suggests stabilisation. Data center growth rate: sequential growth above 15 percent means the demand curve has not found its ceiling. Gross margin: Nvidia guided 75 percent non-GAAP for Q2. Sustained margin indicates pricing power remains intact.

The China Question

Nvidia's guide explicitly excludes any Data Center revenue from China, as did Q1 FY27. If US export controls loosen, any China revenue would be pure upside. If controls tighten, guidance already reflects that. The China exclusion is a call option markets have not fully priced.

What Analysts Should Actually Watch

The Nvidia print lands the evening of 26 August. Warsh speaks at Jackson Hole on Friday morning 28 August, roughly 36 hours later. A strong Nvidia beat combined with hawkish Warsh commentary would produce higher rates and pressure the tech premium. A soft Nvidia guide combined with dovish Warsh commentary would produce the opposite. Positioning through the last week of August needs to account for both events.