What Central Banks Actually Did

Q2 2026 central bank purchases hit 288.9 tonnes, a quarterly record and up 62 percent year-over-year. The remarkable feature is that buying accelerated while prices were falling from January highs. Central banks bought into weakness. Total H1 2026 official-sector purchases reached 345 tonnes. This is structural: monetary authorities are diversifying reserves away from dollar assets at prices that would have been unthinkable five years ago. Central bank buying in November 2025 represented approximately 15 percent of monthly global mine output.

The five-year quarterly average is now roughly double the average of the preceding five years. Sovereign buyers are accelerating a trend.

Why the August Rally Was Different

January's rally was driven by speculative positioning and risk-off flows around the Iran conflict. August's rally is different in composition. Gold ETF inflows have resumed after months of outflows. The SPDR Gold Trust took approximately $637 million in a single session on 7 August. Positioning is now longer than at any point since January but has not reached the extreme readings that preceded the spring correction. September FOMC repricing has been the immediate catalyst; central bank demand and the debt milestone are the structural backdrop.

What Analysts Should Actually Watch

Three data points matter over the next two months. The August CPI on 10 September: a cool print sustains the Fed-cut narrative that has partly driven the rally. September FOMC on 15-16: a hike would test whether the central bank buying floor holds against a hawkish policy signal. And Q3 central bank purchase data due in November: another 250-plus tonne quarter would extend the structural buying pattern into a fourth consecutive record.